Expected inflation
3.4 %In 11 monthsBefore: 3.3 %
What analysts expect
December 2026
4.6 %
Before: 4.4 %
In 11 months
3.4 %
Before: 3.3 %
In 23 months
3.0 %
Before: 3.0 %
How it has changed
- Expected inflation at December 2026
- Expected inflation in 11 months
- Expected inflation in 23 months
- Central Bank target: 3 %
- Observed CPI: 4.1 %
View the data in a table
| Survey | Expected inflation at December 2026 | Expected inflation in 11 months | Expected inflation in 23 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4.6 % | 3.4 % | 3.0 % |
| September 2026 | 4.4 % | 3.3 % | 3.0 % |
| August 2026 | 4.0 % | 3.1 % | 3.0 % |
| July 2026 | 4.0 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
| June 2026 | 4.1 % | 3.1 % | 3.0 % |
| May 2026 | 4.3 % | 3.3 % | 3.0 % |
| April 2026 | 4.3 % | 4.0 % | 3.0 % |
| March 2026 | 3.0 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
| February 2026 | 3.0 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
| January 2026 | 3.0 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
| December 2025 | 3.0 % | 3.0 % | |
| November 2025 | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | |
| October 2025 | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | |
| September 2025 | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | |
| August 2025 | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | |
| July 2025 | 3.3 % | 3.0 % | |
| June 2025 | 3.4 % | 3.0 % | |
| May 2025 | 3.5 % | 3.0 % | |
| April 2025 | 3.6 % | 3.0 % | |
| March 2025 | 3.5 % | 3.0 % | |
| February 2025 | 3.6 % | 3.0 % | |
| January 2025 | 3.8 % | 3.0 % | |
| December 2024 | 3.6 % | 3.0 % | |
| November 2024 | 3.6 % | 3.0 % |
Expected GDP
Expected GDP for 2026
0.2 %
Before: 0.7 %
Expected GDP for 2027
3.0 %
Before: 2.9 %
Expected monetary policy rate in 11 months
4.5 %
Before: 4.5 %
Two-year bond compensation
Two-year bond compensation
3.33 %
Includes risk and liquidity premiums
What this measures
Median of what economists and market participants consulted by the Central Bank expect; it is not the bank's own projection.
The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) is something else: it is the Bank's own projection. We do not mix it with market expectations here.
Observed CPI: 4.1 %. Data of Sep 1, 2026. Source: INE.