The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Chile’s economy will grow 0.6% in 2026. In April, it estimated 2.4%. The figure appears in its October World Economic Outlook report, published this week at the start of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand.
BioBioChile reported the forecast, placing Chile among the continent’s slowest-growing economies. The IMF brings together 190 countries to monitor global economic stability, and its projections serve as a reference for investors and governments.
The adjustment came in two steps. According to CNN Chile, the Fund had already lowered its estimate to 1.8% in July, and has now cut it by another 1.2 percentage points. That is a total reduction of 1.8 percentage points from April. For 2025, the organization estimates growth of 2.5%.
To put this in perspective, in the IMF’s series, 0.6% would be the lowest result since the 6.1% contraction in 2020, during the pandemic. It would also fall below the 0.64% recorded in 2019, the year of the social unrest, and the 0.68% recorded in 2023.
The Fund’s figure coincides with other revisions. The World Bank estimates 0.8% growth for Chile this year, and the government adjusted its own forecast from 1.8% to 0.7%.
Employment is where the impact is felt most. The IMF expects the unemployment rate to reach 9.5% in 2026 and 9.6% in 2027, compared with 8.5% in 2025. It would be the highest since 2020, when it reached 10.8%. In practice, about one in ten workers looking for a job would be unable to find one.
Improvement would be slow. The organization projects unemployment of 9.1% in 2028, 8.5% in 2029 and 7.8% in 2031. Chile ranks 11th among 106 economies with unemployment projections for 2026. In the region, Colombia would have 9%, Argentina 7.6%, Brazil 6.2% and Peru 5%.
Compared with its neighbors, Chile’s growth would be 1.7 percentage points lower than that of Latin America and the Caribbean, which would grow 2.3% this year. In South America, only Bolivia, with a contraction of 3%, ranks lower. Peru would grow 3%, Brazil and Colombia 2.2%, Argentina 2.1% and Uruguay 1.3%.
The report, as covered by these sources, does not detail the specific causes of the cut to Chile’s forecast. It does describe the global situation: the Iran war increased the cost of oil and commodities, while investment in artificial intelligence is driving activity in other economies. Regarding the region, the IMF says there is little counterbalancing effect from the technology upswing in most countries.
Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s director of research, described those two forces as a negative energy shock and a positive shock from the AI boom. Both, she said, push prices upward.
The sources differ on one global detail. BioBioChile says the world economy will grow 3.1% in 2026, a tenth of a percentage point more than previously forecast, while CNN Chile reports that the figure was unchanged from April. Both agree on 3.4% for 2027.
There is some relief on prices. The IMF estimates that inflation in Chile will fall from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.7% this year and 3.5% in 2027. For 2027, the organization maintains its growth projection of 2.6%, followed by 2.4% in 2028.
