Minister of Economy and Mining Daniel Mas said 2026 will be the year to "get the economy in order", according to BioBioChile. He spoke after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for Chile from 2.4% to 0.6%.
The IMF's cut follows others. Earlier, the World Bank had lowered its estimate to 0.8%, and the government itself now expects 0.7%. All three figures are below 1%. To give you an idea, it is as if the economy were barely moving compared with last year.
For 2027, the IMF forecasts growth of 2.6%. The government is more optimistic. "This, ultimately, will be the year when we get the economy in order, when we pay the bills, and next year, 2027, will be the year of growth and jobs," Mas said.
The minister added that they expect "growth of more than 3%" and investment "above 7%". According to him, that is consistent with indicators for projects entering environmental assessment, the preliminary process that major construction projects must undergo before they can be built.
Why did the economy slow down? The World Bank pointed to weakened activity and slower domestic demand, meaning households and businesses buying and investing less. It also cited a deteriorating labor market and "weakening confidence".
Rising fuel prices also hit the incomes of families and businesses. Adverse weather conditions and lower mining production round out the picture.
The official figure has its critics. Experts cited by the outlet doubt the government's 0.7% forecast. To reach it, economic activity would have to grow at an average annual rate of 3.1% between September and December, a pace not seen so far this year.
Mining, the country's main industry, faces problems with its production capacity. Factors include long-term investments to raise productivity, higher costs, the weather, and stoppages caused by strikes or accidents.
The most recent case occurred at El Teniente, Codelco's mine, where two subcontractor workers died in an avalanche while clearing snow. Mas said they asked the state-owned copper company's board to take measures to operate safely.
On the effect on production, the minister ruled out a short-term impact and referred to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), which forecasts a decline of 6.6% by year-end. "I would stick with that figure," he stated.
