Andrés Sansone, Santander’s chief economist, projects that Chile’s economy will end 2026 with growth around zero and rebound by 3.5% in 2027, according to La Tercera. Sansone was macroeconomic coordinator at the Ministry of Finance when Mario Marcel headed the ministry.
His estimate for this year ranges from negative 0.1% to positive 0.1%. "That does little to change the assessment," he told the outlet. For comparison, expectations at the start of the year pointed to growth of 2.5%, and some spoke of more than 3%.
The economist explains the slowdown as the result of two simultaneous blows. The first is copper mining, which in August posted figures not seen in 30 years. By his estimate, the mining sector as a whole could shrink by between 6% and 7% this year.
The second blow is in the rest of the economy. Sansone says non-mining activity, measured in seasonally adjusted terms (that is, excluding effects specific to each time of year), has been virtually stagnant so far in 2026.
He also cited worsening expectations and rising fuel prices, which made households more cautious and affected consumption and investment. Asked about the government’s responsibility, he said it is difficult to know how much prices would have risen if Mepco, the mechanism that smooths fluctuations in fuel prices, had been maintained.
Sansone acknowledges something unusual: Chile would be experiencing very weak growth without a major international crisis. Mining, he insists, is one of the factors weighing most heavily on that outcome.
For 2027, he is more optimistic than the Ministry of Finance, which projects 3.3%. In his view, it will be more than a statistical rebound. "Chile’s productive capacity has not disappeared," he said, recalling that the country averaged growth of 2% over the past 15 years.
His optimism rests on three drivers. There are significant investment projects for the next five years, some agricultural products affected at the start of the year should improve, and mining should return to normal, with growth between zero and slightly positive. Investment would drive the recovery.
The main warning concerns prices. "The Central Bank is in an uncomfortable position today (...) inflation is rising and inflation risks have increased since the last Monetary Policy Report," he said, referring to the Monetary Policy Report. In practice, if prices rise, the Central Bank has less room to lower interest rates, and borrowing remains expensive for your budget.
On fiscal matters, Sansone discussed the Public Finance Report, which projects comfortably meeting the structural deficit target, moving from -2.6% to -2.3% of GDP, for the first time in four years. According to him, copper does not explain that improvement in the structural balance. Lithium revenues and other revenues do, rather than lower spending, which is growing because of the economic recovery and employment plan.
Regarding the 2027 Budget, he considers a spending increase of 1.5% compared with the spending that will actually be carried out this year to be limited. Before the pandemic, the average was 5%. The interview’s title sums up his message for the country: "Chile must get used to a more volatile and disruptive global economy." The available source does not specify which external risks he has in mind.
