Economists and financial market participants have again lowered their expectations for Chile's economy this year. According to Diario Financiero, the Central Bank's latest Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) shows that gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by just 0.2% in 2026, below the 0.7% they projected in September.
GDP is the value of everything the country produces in a year. An increase of 0.2% amounts, in practice, to an economy almost at a standstill. The EEE is a monthly survey the Central Bank conducts among economists, academics and consultants to gauge their expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates. This edition was conducted between October 5 and 9.
The outlook improves further ahead. For 2027, respondents raised their estimate from 2.9% to 3.0%, and for 2028 they expect growth of 2.7%.
Behind those figures is spending. Household consumption would rise by 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Investment, measured as gross fixed capital formation (what businesses and the state spend on machinery, construction and infrastructure), would grow by just 0.3% in 2026. In 2027, it would recover strongly, reaching 5.8%.
In the short term, the market expects the Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec), a kind of advance GDP indicator published each month, to grow by 0.1% in September. For the fourth quarter, it projects an increase of 1.3%.
Inflation has also moved in a direction that puts pressure on your wallet. Respondents expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.3% in November. That would leave prices up 4.6% over twelve months at the end of December, above the 4.4% forecast in September. Inflation would return to the Central Bank's 3% target only at the end of 2027.
Against that backdrop, the market does not expect cheaper credit soon. It expects the Central Bank to hold the Monetary Policy Rate, the benchmark that guides the cost of loans and mortgages, at 4.5% for up to two years. The first cut, of 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points), would come only in another 35 months.
