Experts surveyed by the Central Bank of Chile sharply cut their investment forecast for 2026, according to La Tercera. In the October Economic Expectations Survey (EEE), they expect growth of just 0.3%, compared with the 5.5% they projected in September.
The EEE is a monthly survey the Central Bank conducts among private-sector economists and academics. It gathers their expectations for growth, inflation and the interest rate. It serves as a gauge of how those who follow the economy closely view it.
The investment they measure is called gross fixed capital formation. It covers spending by businesses and the state on machinery, buildings, roads and other assets used for future production. A fall from 5.5% to 0.3% in a month means experts now expect almost no new projects this year.
Economic growth was also revised downward. According to the survey, gross domestic product (GDP, the value of everything the country produces) would grow by 0.2% in 2026, compared with the 0.7% forecast in September. That figure makes the Ministry of Finance's projection of 0.7%, issued a few weeks ago, look optimistic.
September appears to have been a weak month as well. Respondents estimate that Imacec, the monthly indicator that signals how GDP is moving, grew by just 0.1%.
The outlook changes for 2027. Experts raised their growth forecast to 3%, a tenth of a percentage point higher than in the previous survey. For 2028, they raised it from 2.7% to 2.8%.
Investment shows the largest expected rebound. For 2027, the survey projects growth of 5.8%, well above the figure of around 2.1% recorded in last month's survey. If that forecast holds, it would mean projects postponed this year would resume next year.
Investment matters for your wallet because it brings construction work, hiring and business for suppliers. The source does not include employment forecasts, so the effect on the labor market cannot be quantified. Even so, a year of nearly flat investment usually leaves little room for new jobs.
Inflation offers no relief either. Although September's CPI (consumer price index) came in at the low end of expectations, respondents raised their forecast for 2026 by two tenths of a percentage point, to 4.6%. They see it returning to 3%, the Central Bank's target, only in 2027. For October, they expect a CPI increase of 0.4%.
That is why they foresee no changes in the cost of credit. Experts expect the monetary policy rate, the benchmark rate set by the Central Bank that influences interest rates on loans and deposits, to remain at 4.5% for the next 23 months. They anticipate a cut to 4.25% only at a horizon of 35 months.
