The dollar closed Friday at $993.5 selling and $993.2 buying in Chile, its highest level since April 8, 2025, according to Emol. The currency rose $14 over the week. The Banco Central (Chile's central bank) set the observed dollar rate that will apply this Monday, October 26, at $990.35.
So far in 2026, the Chilean peso has depreciated 10.48% against the dollar, according to a tally by Banco Base released by the EFE news agency. That makes it the second hardest-hit currency among the major currencies. Only the Turkish lira has fallen more, at 15.78%.
In practice, the $1,000 dollar has already arrived in some places. Some exchange houses in Santiago charge $1,000 or more per unit. If you are planning a trip or buying from foreign websites, that is the price you will find on the street today.
Three economists consulted by Emol agree that the dollar could cross that mark in the formal market. Where they disagree is on how long it would stay there.
Roberto García, director of QUAOS Financial Advisory, attributes the peso's weakness to three factors. The first is copper: although its international price rose, Chilean production fell to its lowest levels in 20 years, "with no change in trend in sight, at least for next year". It is like having a product that sells for more, but with fewer units to sell.
The second factor is the global strengthening of the dollar, which according to García has appreciated 6% since its February lows. The third is monetary policy. Inflation remains above target, but the weakening of economic activity suggests, in his view, that the Banco Central "lacks sufficient room to maneuver" to raise rates.
Official data show that tension. According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (INE, Chile's national statistics institute), the IPC (Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation) rose 4.1% over the twelve months to September, above the 3% target. The Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM, the benchmark interest rate set by the Banco Central) remains at 4.5%.
García believes that as long as these factors persist, there is no reason for the dollar to fall, but no reason for it to keep rising either. The exception would be a faster rise in energy prices that consolidates a global recession. On Friday, Brent crude reached US$116.35 per barrel after jumping 2.83%, levels not seen since April, amid fears of a military escalation in the Middle East.
Nicolás Román, an academic at the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences of the Universidad de los Andes, sees the short term working against the peso. He cites an economy lacking momentum, US interest rates higher than Chile's and stagnant copper production. For that reason, he projects the exchange rate could reach $1,000 "very soon" and stay at that level.
On the structural side, however, Román estimates the trend should reverse toward levels of $950. He argues that Chile's macroeconomy is "healthy", with a smaller deficit than the US, and that growth expectations for 2027 are rising. He also expects a rate hike because of inflation, a reading that contrasts with García's.
Roberto Gormaz, a research academic at the Universidad de Aconcagua, sees it as "perfectly possible" for the currency to exceed $1,000 before year-end. He cautions, however, that it would be premature to say it will stay at that level for long.
Gormaz focuses on the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank). If rates in that country stay high for longer, investing in dollars becomes more attractive. A drop in copper or worse prospects for China would add pressure on the peso. More expensive oil, he explains, makes Chilean imports costlier and can raise demand for foreign currency.
For the dollar to stay above that mark for weeks or months, according to Gormaz, several of these pressures would have to persist. An easing of external tensions and firm copper prices would favor its retreat. "The $1,000 is a psychological benchmark; on its own it does not constitute a new equilibrium for the dollar", he said.
