Chile will be among the world's 20 slowest-growing countries in 2026, according to La Tercera, which analyzed the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) new projections. The organization estimates that the Chilean economy will expand by just 0.6% this year, putting it alongside countries such as Samoa and France, both at 0.4%.
The forecast has been in free fall. In April, the IMF expected Chile to grow 2.4%. In July, it lowered the figure to 1.8%, and now it has cut it to 0.6%. To put that in perspective, it is as if a company that expected to sell four units ended up selling one.
The estimate was slightly below that of the Ministry of Finance, which projected 0.7% a week ago. Economists surveyed in the Central Bank's Economic Expectations Survey are even more pessimistic: they cut their median forecast from 0.7% to 0.2%, with a range from -0.2% to 0.6%. That figure would put Chile among the 16 slowest-growing countries out of the 190 analyzed by the IMF.
In Latin America, only Bolivia would fare worse, with a contraction of 3%. Paraguay leads the region at 4.6%, followed by Peru (3%), Ecuador (2.7%), Brazil and Colombia (2.2%), Argentina (2.1%), Mexico (1.5%) and Uruguay (1.3%). The regional average would be 2.3%, and the global average, 3.1%.
Why has Chile fallen so far behind? Felipe Alarcón, an economist at EuroAmerica, points to "the succession of disappointing figures" this year, led by mining's poor performance. According to him, the impact of these supply factors (those affecting production capacity, such as a mine extracting less copper) has been much greater in Chile than in other countries in the region.
For your wallet, low growth usually translates into less hiring and businesses being more cautious about investing. La Tercera's article, however, does not provide specific employment or investment projections.
The outlook improves for next year. The IMF projects that Chile will grow 2.6% in 2027, which would place it among the world's 78 slowest-growing countries, but above the Latin American average of 2.5%. Even so, it would remain below the pace of the global economy.
