The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on Thursday cut its growth forecast for the Chilean economy in 2026 to 0.2%. ECLAC is the United Nations body that analyzes the region's economy and is headquartered in Santiago.
According to CNN Chile, the revision is substantial. In April, the commission expected Chile to grow 2.2% this year, and in August it had lowered that figure to 1.6%. In six months, the estimate fell by two percentage points.
To give you an idea, growth of 0.2% is almost equivalent to standing still. If the Chilean economy were a salary of one million pesos, the annual increase would be just two thousand pesos.
With this figure, Chile shares last place in South America with Bolivia. They rank below Uruguay (1.0%), Argentina (1.9%), Brazil (2.1%), Colombia (2.4%), Ecuador (2.6%), Peru (3.0%) and Paraguay (4.5%). Across the entire region, only Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica would perform more weakly, according to CNN Chile.
The regional average also fell. According to Cooperativa, ECLAC lowered its 2026 forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2%, from the 2.2% it estimated in August. Venezuela leads the list with 6.5%, while Haiti (-1.5%) and Cuba (-10.3%) would be the only economies to contract.
The cut follows several months of weak activity. In August, the Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec), the indicator that measures how much the country produces each month, fell 1.0% year over year. The blow came from mining, which plunged 17.4%, mainly because of copper. The rest of the economy grew 1.4%.
ECLAC's figure matches the median in the Central Bank's October Economic Expectations Survey, which also points to 0.2%. It is more pessimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which in early October reduced its estimate for Chile from 1.8% to 0.6%.
It also falls below official figures. In its September Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank lowered its range for 2026 to between 0.25% and 0.75%, from the 1% to 1.75% forecast in June. It attributed the change to weaker domestic spending and lower mining output. The Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, projects 0.7% in the 2027 Budget, down from its previous estimate of 1.8%.
For 2027, ECLAC anticipates a rebound in the Chilean economy to 2.2%. Even so, the country would remain below the regional average of 2.5% and neighbors such as Peru (3.3%) and Argentina (3.0%). It is also the most conservative estimate among the main institutions: the Ministry of Finance expects 3.3%, the Economic Expectations Survey 3.0%, the IMF 2.6% and the Central Bank a range of 2% to 3%.
At the regional level, ECLAC warned that external shocks are hurting demand and making production and imports more expensive, mainly because of rising energy and food prices. Added to this are weaker employment growth and a slight upward trend in inflation.
International financing has also become more expensive. The commission cited the United States Federal Reserve's increase of 25 basis points in September, its first in three years, and two increases by the European Central Bank in June and September. According to ECLAC, this could leave the region's central banks with less room to lower their rates, which for your wallet means loans could take longer to become cheaper.
ECLAC said the recovery in 2027 will depend on global demand, commodity prices, international financial conditions and the possible effects of El Niño.
