According to La Tercera, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects that Chile will export US$125,226 million worth of goods in 2026. That figure would place it third in the region, behind Mexico and Brazil, and ahead of Peru and Argentina.
ECLAC is the United Nations body that studies Latin America's economy and is headquartered in Santiago. The figure appears in its annual report "International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2026".
Mexico would lead the ranking with US$835,325 million, followed by Brazil with US$405,481 million. Behind Chile would come Peru, with US$122,421 million, and Argentina, with US$103,390 million. According to the report, the order would be the same as in 2025.
The report provides two different figures for Chile's growth. On the one hand, it forecasts that the value of Chilean exports will grow 22% year on year, mainly because of higher mineral prices. On the other, the table comparing figures with 2025 assigns Chile growth of 13%, placing it tenth alongside Guatemala and Honduras. La Tercera's article does not explain this difference.
What is clear is that the increase would come from prices rather than quantities. ECLAC estimates that Chilean export volumes will fall 7%. To understand this, imagine selling fewer sacks of copper, but each sack is worth considerably more. In the end, you still bring in more money.
Regionally, ECLAC expects the value of goods exports to rise 20% in 2026, the largest increase since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021. That growth would combine an 11% rise in prices and a 7% rise in volumes. According to the organization, 28 of the region's 33 countries would increase the value of their exports.
South America would benefit most from the commodity price cycle, with exports growing 17%. Of that total, 15% would come from higher prices and just 2% from higher volumes. Mexico, meanwhile, would stand out for its manufacturing exports.
At the press conference, ECLAC Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs discussed shipping routes. He said tensions in the Middle East and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz had diverted ships toward the Panama Canal. Between January and August 2026, traffic through the canal rose 5.8%, from 9,013 to 9,532 ships.
Salazar-Xirinachs added that canal activity is expected to decline because of limits on the number of transits, vessel draft and the drought associated with El Niño. He said the Strait of Magellan had already recorded a significant increase in traffic between August and September 2026.
The executive secretary warned that the main risk is weaker global demand if energy prices continue to rise. He explained that those increases make transport, production and logistics more expensive for net energy importers, including Chile, Peru and Central America.
Regarding Magallanes, Salazar-Xirinachs predicted that some routes from South America and West Africa to Asia would use "the Strait of Magellan more as an alternative route".
