Gobierno proyecta caída de 59% en la caja fiscal para 2027 por pago de deudaEm espanhol

Los activos financieros del Tesoro bajarían a 3,9% del PIB en 2027, y los fondos soberanos seguirían bajo el rango de 5% a 7% sugerido por el FMI.Em espanhol

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The Dirección de Presupuestos (Dipres, Chile's budget office) projected that fiscal cash holdings will fall 59.4% by the end of 2027, according to Diario Financiero. The agency presented the figures to the first budget subcommittee of the Congreso Nacional (Chile's National Congress) during the discussion of the Public Treasury budget item.

According to the outlet, the cash balance would go from US$ 3,617 million this year to US$ 1,465 million. That means it would drop from 0.9% to 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This cash is technically known as Otros Activos del Tesoro Público (OATP, Other Public Treasury Assets).

The reason is debt payments. In the Informe de Finanzas Públicas (IFP, Public Finance Report) that accompanied the Budget bill, Dipres explained that about US$ 2,200 million of the cash will be used to pay debt obligations in 2027. That use replaces the withdrawal from the Fondo de Estabilización Económica y Social (FEES, Economic and Social Stabilization Fund) that the second-quarter report had anticipated.

The drop pulls down the total. The stock of Treasury financial assets would reach US$ 16,862 million in 2027, equivalent to 3.9% of GDP. This year would close at US$ 18,957 million, or 4.7% of GDP, according to Dipres's own estimate.

Those assets include the sovereign wealth funds and the fiscal cash. They also include the Fondo de Apoyo Regional (Regional Support Fund), a regional mirror of the Transantiago subsidy, and the fund for high-cost treatments under the Ley Ricarte Soto (Ricarte Soto Law).

Sovereign wealth funds are the savings the State keeps for emergencies and long-term commitments. Chile has two. The FEES serves as a cushion against crises or revenue drops. The Fondo de Reserva de Pensiones (FRP, Pension Reserve Fund) supports the financing of pension benefits.

Together, the two funds would total US$ 14,699 million in 2027, just above the US$ 14,673 million of 2026. However, as a share of the economy they would fall from 3.6% to 3.4% of GDP.

The FRP would be the largest, with US$ 10,730 million (2.5% of GDP). That figure already accounts for a withdrawal of US$ 299 million to pay pension benefits, as permitted by law. The FEES would hold about US$ 3,968 million (0.9% of GDP), with no withdrawals planned.

Thus, the funds would remain below what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends. The organization states that the optimal level of Chile's sovereign wealth funds in the medium term is between 5% and 7% of GDP.

Budget Director José Pablo Gómez said that part of the proceeds from the Executive's plan to sell state assets will go toward increasing the sovereign wealth funds. The amount has not yet been defined, according to the outlet.

Fiscal cash had already been a point of dispute between the incoming and outgoing governments. In December, the balance fell to just US$ 46 million. As of August, it stood at US$ 9,646 million, driven by more debt issuance and spending control.

The discussion runs in parallel with other points of debate in the 2027 Budget. These include spending cuts, authorization to borrow up to US$ 25 billion and funding for the Gobiernos Regionales (GORE, regional governments).

The subcommittees have until this Friday, October 23, to send all budget items to the joint special committee. So far they have approved, with some exceptions, portfolios such as Energy, Mining, Transport, Foreign Affairs and the Ministerio Público (Public Prosecutor's Office).

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