Eight months before the debris flow that struck the foothills of Las Condes on Thursday, October 9, athlete Carlos Valdivia Davidson submitted two reports to the authorities. In them, he warned that the ravines of San Carlos de Apoquindo could produce a large-scale event.
T13 reported this after gaining access to the documents. According to the official assessment, the mud swept away vehicles and RED buses, entered healthcare facilities and left more than 2,000 homes damaged.
Valdivia practices trail running, meaning running along mountain trails, and regularly trains in those ravines. After the summer fires, he surveyed the terrain, recorded images, gathered data and used artificial intelligence tools to model scenarios. His professional specialty is unrelated to the study of ravines.
The first report, dated February 3, described ground covered with ash, silt, dust, loose soil, gravel and rocks, as well as severely damaged vegetation. According to his analysis, concentrated rainfall of between 20 and 30 millimeters in 24 hours could trigger a debris flow. He warned that "current conditions favor the occurrence of larger debris flows."
The second report, dated February 6, went further. "The basin has enough material to generate an actual debris flow, not just mud," he wrote, describing property damage as "a real and possible scenario". By then, the area had already experienced an initial debris flow in January, after the fires.
The documents reached the Municipality of Las Condes and Santiago Governor Claudio Orrego during the first week of February. "I am forwarding your information to my urban planning team, with whom we are preparing a study precisely on the risks associated with what you describe," Orrego replied.
The municipality welcomed the information and audiovisual records but maintained that it had already identified the risk after the fires and was working on measures to address it. However, Mauricio Fabry, head of the Regional Planning and Development Division of the Santiago Government, said that the Municipality of Las Condes "has not submitted any study related to Quebrada Honda to the Santiago Government." He added that no project on the matter was awaiting funding. The Santiago Government highlighted investments of more than $6,086 million in emergency preparedness and response.
On the ground, residents have a different concern. A resident of Santa Isidora, one of the hardest-hit condominium complexes, told Cooperativa that the community fears theft during the cleanup because windows are broken and homes are uninhabitable. He said the mud reached 1.70 meters in some homes and that half his neighbors lost their entire first floor.
Rodrigo Arriagada, a researcher at Clapes UC, an economic research center at the Catholic University, argued in La Tercera that the area's vulnerability had built up over years. He cited the drying of the sclerophyll forest since 2019 due to drought, urban expansion into exposed areas and the December fire.
Las Condes Mayor Catalina San Martín estimated that debris removal would take weeks. She recalled that cleanup after the smaller summer debris flow took a week and declined to commit to a completion date.