According to La Tercera, the 2027 Budget Bill uses at least three different comparison baselines. As a result, Congress cannot know exactly which budget items rise and which fall compared with what the state expects to spend this year. The newspaper made this argument in an editorial, and no one else has confirmed it.
The bill provides for spending of $91.18 trillion. The President announced real growth of 1.5%, meaning after adjusting for inflation, in a nationwide broadcast. That figure is calculated against the projected year-end total for 2026, meaning what the government actually expects to spend this year.
The same amount represents growth of 2.7% compared with the budget law approved for 2026, which is how spending growth is traditionally reported. Compared with the so-called adjusted baseline, which adds public sector pay adjustments, special laws and fiscal adjustments to the original law, the increase reaches 3.5%.
Think of it as comparing your salary with last year's. Comparing it with what you agreed to in your contract is different from comparing it with what you actually received. Both figures are correct, but they answer different questions.
La Tercera argues that the executive branch uses the lowest baseline, 1.5%, to present an austere budget. To explain the increases by ministry, however, it uses the adjusted baseline, against which overall growth is 3.5%. Someone could therefore believe that the sectoral increases represent additional money compared with what will be spent this year.
The example involves four ministries. The announced increases for Health (4.7%), Public Works (8.9%), Housing (5.8%) and Security (7%) total around $1.7 trillion compared with the adjusted baseline. But the entire 2027 budget has about $1.4 trillion more than expected spending for 2026.
The newspaper's conclusion is arithmetic. If those four ministries alone exceed the entire available increase, their actual increase compared with what will be spent this year must be smaller than announced. What remains unknown is how much smaller, and that information is absent from the published supporting materials.
Public investment does show both figures. The Public Finance Report (IFP), a Ministry of Finance document accompanying the budget, indicates that it would grow by 7.3% compared with expected spending in 2026, but by only 1.6% compared with the law approved for that year. Much of the rebound recovers ground lost through lower spending execution and cuts.
Asked by La Tercera, the Ministry of Finance responded that some resources remain provisioned in the Public Treasury. According to the ministry, their subsequent allocation could change the sectoral figures. An unallocated provision therefore does not necessarily amount to a cut in a ministry.
The editorial calls on the executive branch to provide Congress with a table connecting the approved 2026 law, the adjusted baseline, the projected year-end total and the 2027 proposal, identifying unallocated provisions and transfers between ministries. According to the newspaper, that table would make it possible to determine how much each ministry's budget actually grows.
The fiscal context matters. According to La Tercera, the government is preparing to meet the fiscal balance target in 2026 after three years of missed targets. Congressional consideration of the budget, the main law Congress approves each year, continues without the Ministry of Finance having published that comparison by ministry.
