Chile had 668,400 fewer employed people than its historical employment trend projects for the June-August 2026 quarter, according to La Tercera, which reported on a study by the Institute of Public Policy at Andrés Bello University (UNAB).
The report is titled "In search of lost employment: labor market gaps relative to the historical trend in Chile." According to the report, 9.27 million people were working that quarter, compared with the projected 9.94 million. The difference amounts to 6.7% of the projected level.
To put that in perspective, the gap exceeds the 645 thousand people who currently cannot find work. According to the latest figures from the National Statistics Institute (INE), unemployment stands at 9.6%, with 989,400 people out of work. The INE will publish figures for the July-September quarter next week, and the question is whether that number will continue to rise.
The methodology works like drawing a line with a ruler on an old chart and extending it to the present. The researchers used the INE's National Employment Survey and estimated a linear trend between January-March 2013 and July-September 2019. They also incorporated seasonal effects, meaning the variations typical of each time of year.
That trajectory was projected through June-August 2026 and compared with observed employment. The cutoff matters: the reference point is the labor market before October 2019, before the social unrest and the pandemic.
The shortfall does not affect everyone equally. Sectors below their trend have a combined shortfall of 1,020,400 employed people, while those above it add 328,800. Including people without an identified sector brings the net balance to minus 668,400.
Education, agriculture, and accommodation and food services account for 52.2% of the negative gaps. Education has 181,000 fewer employed people than its trend projects; agriculture, livestock farming, forestry and fishing, 177,000; and accommodation and food services, 175,200. If you are looking for work in a restaurant, hotel or school, you are competing in the sectors with the largest shortfalls.
Trade accounts for another 109,400 employed people below its trajectory. Including trade, the four sectors account for almost 63% of the negative gaps. Construction also lags behind, with 106,800 fewer people than projected.
By contrast, mining has 142,900 more employed people than its trend projects. It is followed by financial and insurance activities, with 58,800, and human health and social work activities, with 32,300. These three sectors account for 71.2% of the positive differences.
José Vicente Figueroa, a researcher at the institute who led the report, said that more than half of the shortfall is concentrated in three sectors. "The task now is to understand what is happening in each of these sectors and determine which policies can effectively help restore momentum to the labor market," he said.
Figueroa proposed coordinating resources for investment in construction, especially public works, with the sectors identified as critical to promote their recovery. As reported, the study does not detail the causes of the shortfall in each sector.
Meanwhile, a report by the consultancy ManpowerGroup Chile projects around 9,000 new job openings for the final quarter of the year. They would be concentrated in logistics, retail, e-commerce, agribusiness and tourism, driven by Cyber Day, Black Friday, Christmas and the agricultural and summer seasons. Average take-home pay would range from $600,000 to $1,000,000.
