There was optimism across Australian alpine resorts this week as their social media channels filled with footage of snow flurries that arrived just in time for the opening of the ski season this weekend. “We couldn’t be more excited,” said the Instagram account of Perisher, the southern hemisphere’s biggest ski resort in Kosciuszko national park in New South Wales, as hands swept the fresh snow from outdoor tables.
While the spectacular wintry scenes will bring enthusiasm, the outlook for the rest of the winter – and the coming decades – is not quite so positive. With an El Niño looking likely to form in the coming weeks, the odds are stacked in favour of drier and warmer conditions though winter and spring.
“Overall with that dry and warm outlook and the El Niño, it does not favour good deep snow cover for skiers,” said Jonathan How, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology. “It tips the odds against a good season because of the less rainfall and high temperatures.
That’s a bad combination.” The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for the winter months suggests below average snowfall for Australia’s alpine regions (with the possible exception of Mount Mawson in Tasmania) while both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average. “But these long-range forecasts can’t predict the day-to-day weather systems.
We will still get those low pressure systems and we will see winter systems move through,” How said. Snow was falling at resorts this week ahead of Saturday’s opening day, but How said forecasts for next week were suggesting daytime temperatures of up to 10C.