Good morning. There is little doubt that when Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he did not expect his troops to still be embroiled there in 2026.
And he surely never envisaged a scaled-down victory parade in Moscow, stripped of military hardware, for fear of Ukrainian drone attacks on his own capital. Putin has survived dangerous moments before, but with the Russian economy stuttering, his popularity is waning – not only with the public but also with the elites who have underpinned his regime for decades.
An undoubted master of survival, the unwritten contract the president has with the Russian people is starting to fray. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s Russian affairs reporter, Pjotr Sauer, about this shift in the national mood and whether the man in the Kremlin has any plan at all for what comes next.
Five big stories - Middle East | The US has launched strikes on southern Iran in a test of the seven-week long ceasefire, as both sides played down hopes for an imminent peace deal even as negotiators from Tehran began new talks in Qatar. - UK politics | Rachel Reeves has instructed cabinet colleagues to award government contracts in four critical industries directly to British companies, making clear her irritation that ministers have been sending too much government business abroad.
Scotland | Peter Murrell, once one of the most powerful people in British politics, faces a long prison sentence after he admitted to stealing more than £400,000 from the Scottish National party to fund a lavish personal lifestyle. - Cost of living | Higher prices could persist over the summer even if ceasefire talks between the US and Iran bear fruit, consumers have been warned, with economic shock waves likely to be felt “for many months to come”.